Changes in eBird frequency since 2016

 

The eBird bar charts give us "frequency: the percentage of checklists reporting that species within a specified date range" - so it gives you an idea of how likely are you to encounter that species during that time frame in appropriate habitat.

These data don't really tell us about the actual abundance of the species - the size of their populations (because of the variety of counting methods and observer effort used to get these eBird data, and other things) ... but ... intuitively, if there are changes in frequency for really common birds - that must say something.

So, I have compared a species' frequency from December 2021 to the frequency from 2016 - in a very imprecise way that would not stand up to statistical analysis.  I have summed the year's frequency for 2016 and for 2021 and compared them by subtracting the 2016 number from the 2021 number.  Here are the results for the top and bottom 30 species - the 30 species that show the greatest increase or decrease in frequency since 2016.

 eBird Regional District of East Kootenay Frequency Difference

Showing 60 of the greatest frequency differences between the sum of eBird frequency for 2016 compared to the sum of eBird frequency for 2021 for 60 species in the Regional District of East Kootenay

English Name		BC_Game		Abundance		Diff_2021
American Crow				vc		3.912559532
Common Raven		g		vc		3.267595681
Canada Goose		g		vc		2.520634189
Northern Flicker				vc		2.459357979
Bald Eagle				c		2.431250047
Mallard		g		vc		2.289990853
Red-breasted Nuthatch				vc		2.125886915
Dark-eyed Junco				vc		1.596265554
American Robin				vc		1.506643623
Rock Pigeon		g		vc		1.454782405
Blue Jay				sc		1.313311740
Eurasian Collared-Dove		g		sc		1.255200966
Black-billed Magpie				c		1.118253242
Bufflehead		g		c		1.115452534
American Wigeon		g		c		1.098214353
American Coot		g		c		1.089445026
Turkey Vulture				sc		0.987196201
Pine Siskin				vc		0.920770842
European Starling				vc		0.916598597
Townsend's Solitaire				c		0.910150795
Red-tailed Hawk				c		0.876833943
Ring-necked Duck		g		c		0.863093321
Trumpeter Swan				sr		0.862401577
Tree Swallow				vc		0.835159263
Osprey				c		0.786232455
Green-winged Teal		g		c		0.763347806
Vesper Sparrow				c		0.760730881
Western Bluebird				c		0.744897794
Eastern Kingbird				c		0.731731785
Killdeer				c		0.730740303
English Name		BC_Game		Abundance		Diff_2021
Ruffed Grouse		g		c		-0.068174952
Barrow's Goldeneye				sc		-0.074931879
Calliope Hummingbird				sc		-0.088113133
White-crowned Sparrow				sc		-0.088878485
Black-headed Grosbeak				sr		-0.098174169
Brown-headed Cowbird				c		-0.098403200
Common Grackle				sc		-0.100154859
Northern Shrike				sc		-0.116332190
Black Tern				unc		-0.122280235
White-throated Sparrow				sr		-0.140874202
Northern Waterthrush				c		-0.155879991
MacGillivray's Warbler				c		-0.172119636
House Finch				vc		-0.181452069
Clark's Nutcracker				vc		-0.199776593
Warbling Vireo				c		-0.228123752
Great Blue Heron				sc		-0.229904927
Townsend's Warbler				c		-0.245286146
Hairy Woodpecker				vc		-0.249200275
Song Sparrow				vc		-0.265412316
American Dipper				c		-0.286035808
Vaux's Swift				c		-0.316657000
Rufous Hummingbird				c		-0.454750968
Bohemian Waxwing				c		-0.540717624
Common Redpoll				c		-0.571101261
Pine Grosbeak				c		-0.779422544
Black-capped Chickadee				vc		-0.803501285
Evening Grosbeak				c		-0.962873544
White-breasted Nuthatch				sc		-1.054325951
Downy Woodpecker				vc		-1.114156219
Steller's Jay				c		-1.154665009

 

So, now you are more likely to see American Crow, Common Raven, Canada Goose, Northern Flicker, and Bald Eagle, etc. when you go out birding; and less likely to see Steller's Jay, Downy Woodpecker, White-breasted Nuthatch, Evening Grosbeak, Black-capped Chickadee, etc. than you would have five years ago.

I think decreases in the very common (vc) species indicates there are some population problems with them: they used to be commonly seen but are seen less often now, probably because there are fewer of them around, not because of some change in their behaviour or birders' behaviour.  And fewer of them around either because their populations are smaller or because there is less habitat available for them.

This is troublesome to think about for Downy Woodpecker and Black-capped Chickadee, especially.  Why?  They are easily identifyable and still fairly common but why would they be reported less unless there are just fewer of them to report?  And Hairy Woodpecker and Song Sparrow?  What's up with them?  And Rufous Hummingbird - hmm.

Clark's Nutcrackers and Great Blue Heron we know are having trouble. Nutcrackers with food supply in higher elevations: less productive limber pine seed crop, limber seeds having higher energy rewards than lodgepole pine.  And Herons having trouble with finding suitable nesting sites - and maybe more predation from a higher Bald Eagle population?

It's good to see Northern Flicker increase in frequency - they carve out lots of cavities for other birds to use as nests and help recycle dead trees.  Eurasian Collared-Dove we know has just "recently" arrived in the area and their population is currently growing rapidly.  They used to be rare but it didn't take long for them to become quite noticeable in human-settled areas.

The increasing frequency of seeing Bald Eagles:  if their numbers are indeed growing, that is fine - we need "top of the food chain" species as part of the overall balance.  Why would they be increasing?  Maybe warmer springs lets them get going earlier laying eggs and that translates to better survival of young?  Maybe they are taking advantage of having more Mallards around to eat?

So, yeah, the 2021 frequency data is cumulative and includes the same data as in the 2016 number.  Both frequency numbers contain all the data in eBird up until that point in time.  That adds some evening.  This is not comparing 2016 and earlier to the time frame of 2017 - 2021.

You can see the eBird bar chart here: https://ebird.org/barchart?byr=1900&eyr=2020&bmo=1&emo=12&r=CA-BC-EK

 And you can change the dates to see the differences for yourself, and you can download the numbers - scroll to bottom, "Download Histogram Data".

Yes, there are more eBirders now, but this is frequency data - so that is factored in.  What is not factored in is skill of the eBirder at detection and many other things - that's why this discussion is not very rigorous scientifically but it does give one something to think about.

 

 

October Global Big Day 2018

Yesterday was the eBird event called October Global Big Day. Data is still coming in. The following stats were relevant at 9:00 pm MST Sunday October 7.

Colombia had the most species, of course, getting 53% of there all-time species count on one day! Congratulations Colombia! 

Canada did pretty well, too, getting 47% of our all-time species! What is especially cool is that the East Kootenay contributed first records for a couple of species in Canada. From what I can tell, based only on the names of contributors I recognize, the East Kootenay contributed the first Barrow's Goldeneye and American Avocet and...

And last but not lesser, the only record so far of Lesser Goldfinch!  This is my personal motivation for checking out these stats and writing this post, because, of course, I and birding buddy Joe, are the ones who found it! Haha.  This is a first for the East Kootenay and a lifer for me!  I haven't found a new bird for my region since the Tufted Duck back in 2013.  I was so excited when I saw it my heart was pounding and I almost fell over.

We would have missed it if we hadn't turned right instead of left or called it quits. It was a beautiful autumn day so why not check out just one more spot.  I have been waiting for one of these to be recorded in the region for some time, since the rest of the southern part of BC seems to have them quite regularly now.  (I am also waiting for Crested Caracara, long shot but you never know).

Anyway, just a happy little Big Day story.

View the Canada list here on eBird.

More on Junco "Erruption"

Yes, I think we can call this an erruption of Dark-eyed Junco ... and it continues ( see previous post robin junco flip).

Let's see if eBird observations support that; let's compare this year (on the right) to last year, and then to previous years combined.

 Comparison of "Total" Dark-eyed Junco, East Kootenay, spring 2017 to spring 2018:

check out the scale on the left: 2017 upper limit = 420, 2018 upper limit = 1000

Comparison of "Abundance" of Dark-eyed Junco, East Kootenay, spring pre-2018 and spring 2018

again, check out the scale on the left: pre-2018 upper limit = 2.6, 2018 upper limit = 6.5

There are over twice as many juncos this year as we normally record.  What's up with that?  Are they coming here rather than heading to places that were burned up in forest fires last year?  Was it a good winter further south for them?

And they seem to be staying around a bit longer, rather than dispersing quickly to breeding territories.  Maybe because the snow is on the ground later and melting not so fast?

I know they are "thick" in my little yard - a dozen hanging around every day for the past two weeks.  There are still a couple of patches of snow back there but they seem happy and sing most of the day until late afternoon.

And yesterday I had quite a strange mix of birds.  Besides the juncos, and usual American Robin, there was a Mourning Dove,  a couple of Clark's Nutcracker, a Pileated Woodpecker, and a dozen Common Redpoll still!  AND a Varied Thrush later in the day.  (Redpolls seems to be holding back a bit this year.  Someone else reported a hundred of them out on a prairie.)

Nature! Always interesting!

And thanks! to all eBirders for reporting!  With so many more eBirders, we are going to be snowed under by volumes of data at this rate!

Robin Junco flip

I perceived we were having an unusual influx of Dark-eyed Junco this spring so I generated some eBird charts to double check.

Sure enough, there are a lot of them all of a sudden and this is quite different from last year.

With this year, 2018 on the left, and last year on the right, we can see there's been a total flip of numbers of Juncos compared to Robins.  AND they both have arrived (according to eBird reports) a bit earlier.  Mind you, we did not get the huge late dumps of snow this year as we did last year.  Still, it is mostly road edges and bare spots under trees that are providing habitat.

This makes me very happy - that there are lots of Juncos.  There has been a darth of them in the fall the last couple of years so perhaps this bodes well for the population.

I loved watching them below my living room window this morning, just feet away, no binos (or "goggles" as the RDEK planner called them the other night at a Wasa OCP open house) required.  How they could find last year's salsify seeds, minus parachute, in between the stems of creeping Thyme boggles my mind.  Then, one was actually singing from its perch on my orange honeysuckle - a rare treat.

Happy birding!

East Kootenay eBird 2017: Firsts and Yearly Species Count

Random photos, because we like photos:

Tree Swallow nestling

Weird Tree Swallow eggs - one too small and the other too long and skinny

Species count by year

How did all we eBirders do this year for the species count in the region overall?

Here are the species counts for the last 5 years:

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017toDate
Count of sp	221	234	233	230	243	231

Wow, 2016 was a very good year for us.  The species we got that year that we haven't got in the other years are:

Black Scoter
Ferruginous Hawk
Western Screech-Owl
Black-throated Green Warbler

(Oh, I guess I did not do a 'new species' post last year, oops.  I am so inconsistent 😳)

That gives us an average over the previous five years of 232 species.
So, we are about average!  Very good.

 

Didn't get this year

So, what did we miss this year that we could possibly get this year?  Not much.  Maybe Hoary Redpoll, Golden-crowned Sparrow, Snowy Owl, a wayward Thrasher?  Birders are an optimistic bunch, why else would we just keep birding?  So, you never know!

Here is a list of species recorded in the previous five years that we haven't got this year:

Species	Count of Yrs
Ross's Goose	2
Tufted Duck	1
Black Scoter	1
Long-tailed Duck	2
Pacific Loon	1
Clark's Grebe	3
Great Egret	1
White-faced Ibis	3
Broad-winged Hawk	2
Swainson's Hawk	3
Ferruginous Hawk	1
Black-bellied Plover	2
Dunlin	1
White-rumped Sandpiper	1
Red Phalarope	1
Willet	1
Franklin's Gull	2
Mew Gull	1
Black Tern	5
Forster's Tern	3
Western Screech-Owl	1
Snowy Owl	1
Short-eared Owl	1
Ruby-throated Hummingbird	1
Broad-tailed Hummingbird	1
Cordilleran Flycatcher	1
Loggerhead Shrike	1
Brown Thrasher	2
Sage Thrasher	2
Sprague's Pipit	1
Magnolia Warbler	3
Blackpoll Warbler	3
Palm Warbler	1
Black-throated Green Warbler	1
Lark Bunting	1
Golden-crowned Sparrow	4
Swamp Sparrow	1
Rose-breasted Grosbeak	1
Indigo Bunting	1
Hoary Redpoll	2

 
The most disturbing no-show is Black Tern. Not one was recorded in the region this year. 

The last one was seen in June of 2016.

Prior to that, over the previous 25 years, the only years Black Tern was not recorded were 2011 and 1992.

I desperately hope they come back next spring.  A couple of years ago, their main nesting habitat at Elizabeth Lake was altered by a flood caused by a plugged culvert. All the floating reeds were blown onshore.  I hope the habitat becomes suitable again and some terns show up to use it!

DID get this year!

BUT we added two new species to the regional list never documented before in the East Kootenay!  In November, to boot!

They are:

1) Anna's Hummingbird - Wycliffe, BC

My lousy record shot - but look at the peaks in the background!  Crazy bird!

We have had claims of Anna's in the past but documentation was not forthcoming.  It was even included on our old pre-eBird checklist.

This one, a juvenile female, has likely been in the area since at least September but the homeowner, who is a sporadic eBirder, did not report her until November.  Nevertheless, thank you for reporting! ... and nice heating arrangement!  Thanks for doing that.  The homeowners have been very accommodating in hosting birders to come see her, allowing us into their home so we, at least, could stay warm and not disturb the bird.  She has continued at this location for the past two weeks and we hope she makes it!

There were also reports of possibly another Anna's in Marysville, eleven kilometers to the NWN and on the same day the Wycliffe bird was finally confirmed as Anna's.  Whether the same bird or not, we don't know but the Marysville bird has not shown again.  That bird was reported to our local naturalists' facebook group.

see: East Kootenay Anna's Hummingbird Photos: Macauley Library eBird

2) Northern Cardinal - Cranbrook, BC

AND THEN! on the same day the Anna's was recorded, a Northern Cardinal showed up at a feeder in Cranbrook.  Wow.  Thank you to fairly new eBirder Katrin P. for picking that bird out from the dozens of House Finches!  Good eye!

This bird, if accepted by the Rare Bird Committee, which appears likely, is, at present, the first documented record of Northern Cardinal in British Columbia.

The bird continues.  Perhaps we will get it on the Christmas Bird Count 27 December 2017.

More about that on the BC Rare Bird blog here

see: East Kootenay Northern Cardinal Photos: Macauley Library eBird

Just keep birding! Just keep birding!